2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years
- Publication type:
- Journal article
- Metadata:
-
- Autoren
- Jan Esper
- Max Torbenson
- Ulf Büntgen
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y
- eISSN
- 1476-4687
- ISSN
- 0028-0836
- Zeitschrift
- Nature
- Sprache
- en
- Online publication date
- 2024
- Status
- Published online
- Herausgeber
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Herausgeber URL
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y
- Datum der Datenerfassung
- 2024
- Titel
- 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years
Data source: Crossref
- Other metadata sources:
-
- Abstract
- Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer<sup>1</sup><sup>,2</sup>, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record<sup>3-5</sup>. Contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is nontrivial, however, because the sparse 19<sup>th</sup> century meteorological records tend to be too warm<sup>6</sup>. Here, we combine observed and reconstructed June-August (JJA) surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest NH extra-tropical summer over the past 2000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than half a degree Celsius. Comparison of the 2023 JJA warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in 536 CE reveals a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93°C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse gases-induced warming trend<sup>7</sup> that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event<sup>8</sup>, this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.
- Addresses
- Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany. esper@uni-mainz.de.
- Autoren
- Jan Esper
- Max Torbenson
- Ulf Büntgen
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y
- eISSN
- 1476-4687
- Externe Identifier
- PubMed Identifier: 38744323
- Open access
- false
- ISSN
- 0028-0836
- Zeitschrift
- Nature
- Sprache
- eng
- Medium
- Print-Electronic
- Online publication date
- 2024
- Datum der Veröffentlichung
- 2024
- Status
- Published
- Datum der Datenerfassung
- 2024
- Titel
- 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years.
- Sub types
- Journal Article
Data source: Europe PubMed Central
- Abstract
- Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer1,2, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record3-5. Contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is nontrivial, however, because the sparse 19th century meteorological records tend to be too warm6. Here, we combine observed and reconstructed June-August (JJA) surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest NH extra-tropical summer over the past 2000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than half a degree Celsius. Comparison of the 2023 JJA warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in 536 CE reveals a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93°C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse gases-induced warming trend7 that is amplified by an unfolding El Niño event8, this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.
- Date of acceptance
- 2024
- Autoren
- Jan Esper
- Max Torbenson
- Ulf Büntgen
- Autoren-URL
- https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38744323
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y
- eISSN
- 1476-4687
- Zeitschrift
- Nature
- Sprache
- eng
- Country
- England
- PII
- 10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y
- Datum der Veröffentlichung
- 2024
- Status
- Published online
- Titel
- 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years.
- Sub types
- Journal Article
Data source: PubMed
- Beziehungen:
- Property of