Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series

Publication type:
Journal article
Metadata:
Autoren
  • M Mudelsee
  • J Fohlmeister
  • D Scholz
Autoren-URL
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:000310470600018&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL
DOI
10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012
eISSN
1814-9332
Externe Identifier
  • Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: 029BU
ISSN
1814-9324
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
5
Zeitschrift
CLIMATE OF THE PAST
Paginierung
1637 - 1648
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2012
Status
Published
Titel
Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series
Sub types
  • Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
8

Data source: Web of Science (Lite)

Other metadata sources:
Abstract
<jats:p>Abstract. A fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka). We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser–Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1) block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation) of the δ18O residuals and (2) timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam). The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka), with warm–cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP. </jats:p>
Autoren
  • M Mudelsee
  • J Fohlmeister
  • D Scholz
DOI
10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012
eISSN
1814-9332
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
5
Zeitschrift
Climate of the Past
Sprache
en
Online publication date
2012
Paginierung
1637 - 1648
Status
Published online
Herausgeber
Copernicus GmbH
Herausgeber URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012
Datum der Datenerfassung
2021
Titel
Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
8

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