The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions

Publication type:
Journal article
Metadata:
Autoren
  • Ulf Buentgen
  • Kathy Allen
  • Kevin J Anchukaitis
  • Dominique Arseneault
  • Etienne Boucher
  • Achim Brauning
  • Snigdhansu Chatterjee
  • Paolo Cherubini
  • Sidorova Olga V Churakova
  • Christophe Corona
  • Fabio Gennaretti
  • Jussi Griessinger
  • Sebastian Guillet
  • Joel Guiot
  • Bjorn Gunnarson
  • Samuli Helama
  • Philipp Hochreuther
  • Malcolm K Hughes
  • Peter Huybers
  • Alexander V Kirdyanov
  • Paul J Krusic
  • Josef Ludescher
  • Wolfgang J-H Meier
  • Vladimir S Myglan
  • Kurt Nicolussi
  • Clive Oppenheimer
  • Frederick Reinig
  • Matthew W Salzer
  • Kristina Seftigen
  • Alexander R Stine
  • Markus Stoffel
  • Scott St George
  • Ernesto Tejedor
  • Aleyda Trevino
  • Valerie Trouet
  • Jianglin Wang
  • Rob Wilson
  • Bao Yang
  • Guobao Xu
  • Jan Esper
Autoren-URL
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:000687325100004&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
eISSN
2041-1723
Externe Identifier
  • Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: UD6ON
  • PubMed Identifier: 34099683
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
1
Zeitschrift
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Artikelnummer
ARTN 3411
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2021
Status
Published
Titel
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
Sub types
  • Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
12

Data source: Web of Science (Lite)

Other metadata sources:
Abstract
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (<jats:italic>p</jats:italic> &lt; 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.</jats:p>
Autoren
  • Ulf Büntgen
  • Kathy Allen
  • Kevin J Anchukaitis
  • Dominique Arseneault
  • Étienne Boucher
  • Achim Bräuning
  • Snigdhansu Chatterjee
  • Paolo Cherubini
  • Olga V Churakova
  • Christophe Corona
  • Fabio Gennaretti
  • Jussi Grießinger
  • Sebastian Guillet
  • Joel Guiot
  • Björn Gunnarson
  • Samuli Helama
  • Philipp Hochreuther
  • Malcolm K Hughes
  • Peter Huybers
  • Alexander V Kirdyanov
  • Paul J Krusic
  • Josef Ludescher
  • Wolfgang J-H Meier
  • Vladimir S Myglan
  • Kurt Nicolussi
  • Clive Oppenheimer
  • Frederick Reinig
  • Matthew W Salzer
  • Kristina Seftigen
  • Alexander R Stine
  • Markus Stoffel
  • Scott St. George
  • Ernesto Tejedor
  • Aleyda Trevino
  • Valerie Trouet
  • Jianglin Wang
  • Rob Wilson
  • Bao Yang
  • Guobao Xu
  • Jan Esper
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
eISSN
2041-1723
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
1
Zeitschrift
Nature Communications
Sprache
en
Artikelnummer
3411
Online publication date
2021
Status
Published online
Herausgeber
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Herausgeber URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
Datum der Datenerfassung
2022
Titel
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
12

Data source: Crossref

Abstract
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
Addresses
  • Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. ulf.buentgen@geog.cam.ac.uk.
Autoren
  • Ulf Büntgen
  • Kathy Allen
  • Kevin J Anchukaitis
  • Dominique Arseneault
  • Étienne Boucher
  • Achim Bräuning
  • Snigdhansu Chatterjee
  • Paolo Cherubini
  • Olga V Churakova Sidorova
  • Christophe Corona
  • Fabio Gennaretti
  • Jussi Grießinger
  • Sebastian Guillet
  • Joel Guiot
  • Björn Gunnarson
  • Samuli Helama
  • Philipp Hochreuther
  • Malcolm K Hughes
  • Peter Huybers
  • Alexander V Kirdyanov
  • Paul J Krusic
  • Josef Ludescher
  • Wolfgang J-H Meier
  • Vladimir S Myglan
  • Kurt Nicolussi
  • Clive Oppenheimer
  • Frederick Reinig
  • Matthew W Salzer
  • Kristina Seftigen
  • Alexander R Stine
  • Markus Stoffel
  • Scott St George
  • Ernesto Tejedor
  • Aleyda Trevino
  • Valerie Trouet
  • Jianglin Wang
  • Rob Wilson
  • Bao Yang
  • Guobao Xu
  • Jan Esper
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
eISSN
2041-1723
Externe Identifier
  • PubMed Identifier: 34099683
  • PubMed Central ID: PMC8184857
Funding acknowledgements
  • European Research Council: 882727
  • Swiss National Science Foundation: 183571
Open access
true
ISSN
2041-1723
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
1
Zeitschrift
Nature communications
Sprache
eng
Medium
Electronic
Online publication date
2021
Open access status
Open Access
Paginierung
3411
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2021
Status
Published
Publisher licence
CC BY
Datum der Datenerfassung
2021
Titel
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.
Sub types
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • research-article
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Journal Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
12

Files

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23627-6.pdf https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC8184857?pdf=render

Data source: Europe PubMed Central

Abstract
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794-2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
Date of acceptance
2021
Autoren
  • Ulf Büntgen
  • Kathy Allen
  • Kevin J Anchukaitis
  • Dominique Arseneault
  • Étienne Boucher
  • Achim Bräuning
  • Snigdhansu Chatterjee
  • Paolo Cherubini
  • Olga V Churakova Sidorova
  • Christophe Corona
  • Fabio Gennaretti
  • Jussi Grießinger
  • Sebastian Guillet
  • Joel Guiot
  • Björn Gunnarson
  • Samuli Helama
  • Philipp Hochreuther
  • Malcolm K Hughes
  • Peter Huybers
  • Alexander V Kirdyanov
  • Paul J Krusic
  • Josef Ludescher
  • Wolfgang J-H Meier
  • Vladimir S Myglan
  • Kurt Nicolussi
  • Clive Oppenheimer
  • Frederick Reinig
  • Matthew W Salzer
  • Kristina Seftigen
  • Alexander R Stine
  • Markus Stoffel
  • Scott St George
  • Ernesto Tejedor
  • Aleyda Trevino
  • Valerie Trouet
  • Jianglin Wang
  • Rob Wilson
  • Bao Yang
  • Guobao Xu
  • Jan Esper
Autoren-URL
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34099683
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
eISSN
2041-1723
Externe Identifier
  • PubMed Central ID: PMC8184857
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
1
Zeitschrift
Nat Commun
Sprache
eng
Country
England
Paginierung
3411
PII
10.1038/s41467-021-23627-6
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2021
Status
Published online
Datum, an dem der Datensatz öffentlich gemacht wurde
2021
Titel
The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions.
Sub types
  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
12

Data source: PubMed

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