Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks

Abstract

Climate change has been identified as a causal factor for diverse ecological changes worldwide. Warming trends over the last couple of decades have coincided with the collapse of long-term population cycles in a broad range of taxa, although causal mechanisms are not well-understood. Larch budmoth (LBM) population dynamics across the European Alps, a classic example of regular outbreaks, inexplicably changed sometime during the 1980s after 1,200 y of nearly uninterrupted periodic outbreak cycles. Herein, analysis of perhaps the most extensive spatiotemporal dataset of population dynamics and reconstructed Alpine-wide LBM defoliation records reveals elevational shifts in LBM outbreak epicenters that coincide with temperature fluctuations over two centuries. A population model supports the hypothesis that temperature-mediated shifting of the optimal elevation for LBM population growth is the mechanism for elevational epicenter changes. Increases in the optimal elevation for population growth over the warming period of the last century to near the distributional limit of host larch likely dampened population cycles, thereby causing the collapse of a millennium-long outbreak cycle. The threshold-like change in LBM outbreak pattern highlights how interacting species with differential response rates to climate change can result in dramatic ecological changes.

Autoren

Derek M Johnson
Ulf Büntgen
David C Frank
Kyrre Kausrud
Kyle J Haynes
Andrew M Liebhold
Jan Esper
Nils Chr Stenseth

DOI

10.1073/pnas.1010270107

eISSN

1091-6490

ISSN

0027-8424

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

47

Zeitschrift

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Sprache

en

Online publication date

2010

Paginierung

20576 - 20581

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2010

Status

Published

Herausgeber

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Herausgeber URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1010270107

Datum der Datenerfassung

2022

Titel

Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

107

Data source: Crossref

Abstract

Climate change has been identified as a causal factor for diverse ecological changes worldwide. Warming trends over the last couple of decades have coincided with the collapse of long-term population cycles in a broad range of taxa, although causal mechanisms are not well-understood. Larch budmoth (LBM) population dynamics across the European Alps, a classic example of regular outbreaks, inexplicably changed sometime during the 1980s after 1,200 y of nearly uninterrupted periodic outbreak cycles. Herein, analysis of perhaps the most extensive spatiotemporal dataset of population dynamics and reconstructed Alpine-wide LBM defoliation records reveals elevational shifts in LBM outbreak epicenters that coincide with temperature fluctuations over two centuries. A population model supports the hypothesis that temperature-mediated shifting of the optimal elevation for LBM population growth is the mechanism for elevational epicenter changes. Increases in the optimal elevation for population growth over the warming period of the last century to near the distributional limit of host larch likely dampened population cycles, thereby causing the collapse of a millennium-long outbreak cycle. The threshold-like change in LBM outbreak pattern highlights how interacting species with differential response rates to climate change can result in dramatic ecological changes.

Addresses

Department of Biology, University of Louisiana, Lafayette, LA 70504, USA. derekjohnson@louisiana.edu

Autoren

Derek M Johnson
Ulf Büntgen
David C Frank
Kyrre Kausrud
Kyle J Haynes
Andrew M Liebhold
Jan Esper
Nils Chr Stenseth

DOI

10.1073/pnas.1010270107

eISSN

1091-6490

Externe Identifier

PubMed Identifier: 21059922
PubMed Central ID: PMC2996654

Open access

false

ISSN

0027-8424

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

47

Zeitschrift

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Schlüsselwörter

Animals
Moths
Larix
Temperature
Demography
Population Dynamics
Geography
Models, Theoretical
Computer Simulation
Europe
Climate Change

Sprache

eng

Medium

Print-Electronic

Online publication date

2010

Paginierung

20576 - 20581

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2010

Status

Published

Datum der Datenerfassung

2010

Titel

Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks.

Sub types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
research-article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Journal Article

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

107

Files

https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc2996654?pdf=render https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21059922/pdf/?tool=EBI http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/107/47/20576.pdf

Data source: Europe PubMed Central

Abstract

Climate change has been identified as a causal factor for diverse ecological changes worldwide. Warming trends over the last couple of decades have coincided with the collapse of long-term population cycles in a broad range of taxa, although causal mechanisms are not well-understood. Larch budmoth (LBM) population dynamics across the European Alps, a classic example of regular outbreaks, inexplicably changed sometime during the 1980s after 1,200 y of nearly uninterrupted periodic outbreak cycles. Herein, analysis of perhaps the most extensive spatiotemporal dataset of population dynamics and reconstructed Alpine-wide LBM defoliation records reveals elevational shifts in LBM outbreak epicenters that coincide with temperature fluctuations over two centuries. A population model supports the hypothesis that temperature-mediated shifting of the optimal elevation for LBM population growth is the mechanism for elevational epicenter changes. Increases in the optimal elevation for population growth over the warming period of the last century to near the distributional limit of host larch likely dampened population cycles, thereby causing the collapse of a millennium-long outbreak cycle. The threshold-like change in LBM outbreak pattern highlights how interacting species with differential response rates to climate change can result in dramatic ecological changes.

Autoren

Derek M Johnson
Ulf Büntgen
David C Frank
Kyrre Kausrud
Kyle J Haynes
Andrew M Liebhold
Jan Esper
Nils Chr Stenseth

Autoren-URL

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21059922

DOI

10.1073/pnas.1010270107

eISSN

1091-6490

Externe Identifier

PubMed Central ID: PMC2996654

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

47

Zeitschrift

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Schlüsselwörter

Animals
Climate Change
Computer Simulation
Demography
Europe
Geography
Larix
Models, Theoretical
Moths
Population Dynamics
Temperature

Sprache

eng

Country

United States

Paginierung

20576 - 20581

PII

1010270107

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2010

Status

Published

Datum, an dem der Datensatz öffentlich gemacht wurde

2011

Titel

Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks.

Sub types

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

107

Data source: PubMed

Climatic warming disrupts recurrent Alpine insect outbreaks

Files

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