Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves

Publication type:
Journal article
Metadata:
Autoren
  • Chloe Prodhomme
  • Stefano Materia
  • Constantin Ardilouze
  • Rachel H White
  • Lauriane Batte
  • Virginie Guemas
  • Georgios Fragkoulidis
  • Javier Garcia-Serrano
Autoren-URL
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:000661070400002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL
DOI
10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
eISSN
1432-0894
Externe Identifier
  • Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: 0N4GZ
ISSN
0930-7575
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
7-8
Zeitschrift
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Schlüsselwörter
  • Seasonal forecast
  • Heatwave
Paginierung
2149 - 2166
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2022
Status
Published
Titel
Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves
Sub types
  • Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
58

Data source: Web of Science (Lite)

Other metadata sources:
Abstract
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Under the influence of global warming, heatwaves are becoming a major threat in many parts of the world, affecting human health and mortality, food security, forest fires, biodiversity, energy consumption, as well as the production and transportation networks. Seasonal forecasting is a promising tool to help mitigate these impacts on society. Previous studies have highlighted some predictive capacity of seasonal forecast systems for specific strong heatwaves such as those of 2003 and 2010. To our knowledge, this study is thus the first of its kind to systematically assess the prediction skill of heatwaves over Europe in a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system. One major prerequisite to do so is to appropriately define heatwaves. Existing heatwave indices, built to measure heatwave duration and severity, are often designed for specific impacts and thus have limited robustness for an analysis of heatwave variability. In this study, we investigate the seasonal prediction skill of European summer heatwaves in the ECMWF System 5 operational forecast system by means of several dedicated metrics, as well as its added-value compared to a simple statistical model based on the linear trend. We are able to show, for the first time, that seasonal forecasts initialized in early May can provide potentially useful information of <jats:italic>summer heatwave propensity</jats:italic>, which is the tendency of a season to be predisposed to the occurrence of heatwaves.</jats:p>
Autoren
  • Chloé Prodhomme
  • Stefano Materia
  • Constantin Ardilouze
  • Rachel H White
  • Lauriane Batté
  • Virginie Guemas
  • Georgios Fragkoulidis
  • Javier García-Serrano
DOI
10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
eISSN
1432-0894
ISSN
0930-7575
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
7-8
Zeitschrift
Climate Dynamics
Sprache
en
Online publication date
2021
Paginierung
2149 - 2166
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2022
Status
Published
Herausgeber
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Herausgeber URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05828-3
Datum der Datenerfassung
2022
Titel
Seasonal prediction of European summer heatwaves
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
58

Data source: Crossref

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