Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers

Abstract

AbstractThe phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat‐sum models and chilling‐influenced heat‐sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site‐years over Europe and Canada. The chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7‐day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling‐influenced heat‐sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter–spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling.

Autoren

Nicolas Delpierre
Ségolène Lireux
Florian Hartig
Jesus Julio Camarero
Alissar Cheaib
Katarina Čufar
Henri Cuny
Annie Deslauriers
Patrick Fonti
Jožica Gričar
Jian‐Guo Huang
Cornelia Krause
Guohua Liu
Martin de Luis
Harri Mäkinen
Edurne Martinez del Castillo
Hubert Morin
Pekka Nöjd
Walter Oberhuber
Peter Prislan
Sergio Rossi
Seyedeh Masoumeh Saderi
Vaclav Treml
Hanus Vavrick
Cyrille BK Rathgeber

DOI

10.1111/gcb.14539

eISSN

1365-2486

ISSN

1354-1013

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

3

Zeitschrift

Global Change Biology

Sprache

en

Online publication date

2019

Paginierung

1089 - 1105

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2019

Status

Published

Herausgeber

Wiley

Herausgeber URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14539

Datum der Datenerfassung

2023

Titel

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

25

Datenquelle: Crossref

Abstract

The phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat-sum models and chilling-influenced heat-sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site-years over Europe and Canada. The chilling-influenced heat-sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7-day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling-influenced heat-sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter-spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling.

Addresses

Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Orsay, France.

Autoren

Nicolas Delpierre
Ségolène Lireux
Florian Hartig
Jesus Julio Camarero
Alissar Cheaib
Katarina Čufar
Henri Cuny
Annie Deslauriers
Patrick Fonti
Jožica Gričar
Jian-Guo Huang
Cornelia Krause
Guohua Liu
Martin de Luis
Harri Mäkinen
Edurne Martinez Del Castillo
Hubert Morin
Pekka Nöjd
Walter Oberhuber
Peter Prislan
Sergio Rossi
Seyedeh Masoumeh Saderi
Vaclav Treml
Hanus Vavrick
Cyrille BK Rathgeber

DOI

10.1111/gcb.14539

eISSN

1365-2486

Externe Identifier

PubMed Identifier: 30536724

Funding acknowledgements

National Science Foundation: 100
Swiss National Science Foundation: INTEGRAL‐121859, LOTFOR‐150205
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada:
Academy of Finland: 115650
Grantová Agentura České Republiky: CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0265
National Science Foundation: INTEGRAL‐121859
National Science Foundation: P4‐0107
Chinese Academy of Sciences: Y421081001
National Natural Science Foundation of China: 31570584
Agence Nationale de la Recherche: ANR‐11‐LABX‐0002‐01
Academy of Finland: 115650, 124390
European Social Fund: CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0265
Agence Nationale de la Recherche: LOTFOR‐150205
National Science Foundation: P4‐0015
European Cooperation in Science and Technology: STReESS FP1106, PROFOUND FP1304
Academy of Finland: 124390
Agence Nationale de la Recherche: ANR‐11‐LABX‐0002‐01, Lab of Excellence ARBRE
Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS: programs P4‐0015 and P4‐0107
Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS:

Open access

false

ISSN

1354-1013

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

3

Zeitschrift

Global change biology

Schlüsselwörter

Bayes Theorem
Temperature
Seasons
Models, Biological
Wood
Canada
Europe
Xylem
Climate Change
Tracheophyta

Sprache

eng

Medium

Print-Electronic

Online publication date

2019

Paginierung

1089 - 1105

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2019

Status

Published

Datum der Datenerfassung

2018

Titel

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers.

Sub types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Journal Article

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

25

Datenquelle: Europe PubMed Central

Abstract

The phenology of wood formation is a critical process to consider for predicting how trees from the temperate and boreal zones may react to climate change. Compared to leaf phenology, however, the determinism of wood phenology is still poorly known. Here, we compared for the first time three alternative ecophysiological model classes (threshold models, heat-sum models and chilling-influenced heat-sum models) and an empirical model in their ability to predict the starting date of xylem cell enlargement in spring, for four major Northern Hemisphere conifers (Larix decidua, Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Picea mariana). We fitted models with Bayesian inference to wood phenological data collected for 220 site-years over Europe and Canada. The chilling-influenced heat-sum model received most support for all the four studied species, predicting validation data with a 7.7-day error, which is within one day of the observed data resolution. We conclude that both chilling and forcing temperatures determine the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers. Importantly, the chilling-influenced heat-sum model showed virtually no spatial bias whichever the species, despite the large environmental gradients considered. This suggests that the spring onset of wood formation is far less affected by local adaptation than by environmentally driven plasticity. In a context of climate change, we therefore expect rising winter-spring temperature to exert ambivalent effects on the spring onset of wood formation, tending to hasten it through the accumulation of forcing temperature, but imposing a higher forcing temperature requirement through the lower accumulation of chilling.

Date of acceptance

2018

Autoren

Nicolas Delpierre
Ségolène Lireux
Florian Hartig
Jesus Julio Camarero
Alissar Cheaib
Katarina Čufar
Henri Cuny
Annie Deslauriers
Patrick Fonti
Jožica Gričar
Jian-Guo Huang
Cornelia Krause
Guohua Liu
Martin de Luis
Harri Mäkinen
Edurne Martinez Del Castillo
Hubert Morin
Pekka Nöjd
Walter Oberhuber
Peter Prislan
Sergio Rossi
Seyedeh Masoumeh Saderi
Vaclav Treml
Hanus Vavrick
Cyrille BK Rathgeber

Autoren-URL

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30536724

DOI

10.1111/gcb.14539

eISSN

1365-2486

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

3

Zeitschrift

Glob Chang Biol

Schlüsselwörter

cambium
chilling temperatures
conifers
forcing temperatures
phenological models
wood phenology
Bayes Theorem
Canada
Climate Change
Europe
Models, Biological
Seasons
Temperature
Tracheophyta
Wood
Xylem

Sprache

eng

Country

England

Paginierung

1089 - 1105

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2019

Status

Published

Datum, an dem der Datensatz öffentlich gemacht wurde

2019

Titel

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers.

Sub types

Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

25

Datenquelle: PubMed

Chilling and forcing temperatures interact to predict the onset of wood formation in Northern Hemisphere conifers

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