Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic

Publikationstyp:
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Metadaten:
Autoren
  • Max CA Torbenson
  • Rudolf Brazdil
  • James H Stagge
  • Jan Esper
  • Ulf Buntgen
  • Adam Vizina
  • Martin Hanel
  • Oldrich Rakovec
  • Milan Fischer
  • Otmar Urban
  • Vaclav Treml
  • Frederick Reinig
  • Edurne Martinez del Castillo
  • Michal Rybnicek
  • Tomas Kolar
  • Miroslav Trnka
Autoren-URL
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:001088759200001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL
DOI
10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534
eISSN
2214-5818
Externe Identifier
  • Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: W0QI3
  • PubMed Identifier: 38145056
Zeitschrift
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
Schlüsselwörter
  • Baseflow
  • Morava
  • Extremes
  • Tree rings
  • Reconstruction
Artikelnummer
ARTN 101534
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2023
Status
Published
Titel
Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic
Sub types
  • Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
50

Datenquelle: Web of Science (Lite)

Andere Metadatenquellen:
Autoren
DOI
10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534
ISSN
2214-5818
Zeitschrift
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Sprache
en
Artikelnummer
101534
Paginierung
101534 - 101534
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2023
Status
Published
Herausgeber
Elsevier BV
Herausgeber URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534
Datum der Datenerfassung
2024
Titel
Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
50

Datenquelle: Crossref

Abstract
<h4>Study region</h4>The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe.<h4>Study focus</h4>Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, understanding changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July-September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century.<h4>New hydrological insights for the region</h4>The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that pre-instrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends.
Addresses
  • Department of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany.
Autoren
DOI
10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534
eISSN
2214-5818
Externe Identifier
  • PubMed Identifier: 38145056
  • PubMed Central ID: PMC10739599
Funding acknowledgements
  • European Research Council: 882727
Open access
true
ISSN
2214-5818
Zeitschrift
Journal of hydrology. Regional studies
Sprache
eng
Medium
Print
Open access status
Open Access
Paginierung
101534
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2023
Status
Published
Publisher licence
CC BY-NC-ND
Datum der Datenerfassung
2023
Titel
Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic.
Sub types
  • research-article
  • Journal Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
50

Datenquelle: Europe PubMed Central

Abstract
STUDY REGION: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe. STUDY FOCUS: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, understanding changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July-September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century. NEW HYDROLOGICAL INSIGHTS FOR THE REGION: The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that pre-instrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends.
Date of acceptance
2023
Autoren
Autoren-URL
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38145056
DOI
10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534
eISSN
2214-5818
Externe Identifier
  • PubMed Central ID: PMC10739599
Zeitschrift
J Hydrol Reg Stud
Schlüsselwörter
  • Baseflow
  • Extremes
  • Morava
  • Reconstruction
  • Tree rings
Sprache
eng
Country
Netherlands
Paginierung
101534
PII
S2214-5818(23)00221-5
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2023
Status
Published
Titel
Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic.
Sub types
  • Journal Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
50

Datenquelle: PubMed

Author's licence
CC-BY-NC-ND
Autoren
Hosting institution
Universitätsbibliothek Mainz
Resource version
Published version
DOI
10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534
File(s) embargoed
false
Open access
true
ISSN
2214-5818
Zeitschrift
Journal of hydrology : regional studies
Sprache
eng
Open access status
Open Access
Paginierung
101534
Herausgeber
Elsevier
Zugang
Private
Titel
Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
50

Files

increasing_volatility_of_reco-20231113095434353.pdf

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