A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias

Publikationstyp:
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Metadaten:
Autoren
Autoren-URL
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:000330450300002&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL
DOI
10.1093/pan/mpt012
eISSN
1476-4989
Externe Identifier
  • Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: 300FR
ISSN
1047-1987
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
1
Zeitschrift
POLITICAL ANALYSIS
Paginierung
31 - 44
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2014
Status
Published
Titel
A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias
Sub types
  • Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
22

Datenquelle: Web of Science (Lite)

Andere Metadatenquellen:
Abstract
<jats:p>In this article, we propose a polling accuracy measure for multi-party elections based on a generalization of Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy's two-party predictive accuracy index. Treating polls as random samples of a voting population, we first estimate an intercept only multinomial logit model to provide proportionate odds measures of each party's share of the vote, and thereby both unweighted and weighted averages of these values as a summary index for poll accuracy. We then propose measures for significance testing, and run a series of simulations to assess possible bias from the resulting folded normal distribution across different sample sizes, finding that bias is small even for polls with small samples. We apply our measure to the 2012 French presidential election polls to demonstrate its applicability in tracking overall polling performance across time and polling organizations. Finally, we demonstrate the practical value of our measure by using it as a dependent variable in an explanatory model of polling accuracy, testing the different possible sources of bias in the French data.</jats:p>
Autoren
DOI
10.1093/pan/mpt012
eISSN
1476-4989
ISSN
1047-1987
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
1
Zeitschrift
Political Analysis
Sprache
en
Online publication date
2017
Paginierung
31 - 44
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2014
Status
Published
Herausgeber
Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Herausgeber URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpt012
Datum der Datenerfassung
2024
Titel
A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
22

Datenquelle: Crossref

Abstract
In this article, we propose a polling accuracy measure for multi-party elections based on a generalization of Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy s two-party predictive accuracy index. Treating polls as random samples of a voting population, we first estimate an intercept only multinomial logit model to provide proportionate odds measures of each party s share of the vote, and thereby both unweighted and weighted averages of these values as a summary index for poll accuracy. We then propose measures for significance testing, and run a series of simulations to assess possible bias from the resulting folded normal distribution across different sample sizes, finding that bias is small even for polls with small samples. We apply our measure to the 2012 French presidential election polls to demonstrate its applicability in tracking overall polling performance across time and polling organizations. Finally, we demonstrate the practical value of our measure by using it as a dependent variable in an explanatory model of polling accuracy, testing the different possible sources of bias in the French data.
Autoren
DOI
10.1093/pan/mpt012
Zeitschrift
Political Analysis
Notes
keywords: meth-e data: http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/21603 html: https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/new-multinomial-accuracy-measure-for-polling-bias
Artikelnummer
1
Paginierung
31 - 44
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2014
Herausgeber URL
http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/mpt012?ijkey=z9z740VU1fZp331&keytype=ref
Datum der Datenerfassung
2022
Titel
A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias
Sub types
  • article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
22

Datenquelle: Manual

Beziehungen:
Eigentum von

Werkzeuge