The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices
- Publikationstyp:
- Zeitschriftenaufsatz
- Metadaten:
-
- Autoren
- Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
- Peter Thejll
- Bo Christiansen
- Andrea Seim
- Claudia Hartl
- Jan Esper
- Autoren-URL
- https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:000626817600001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL
- DOI
- 10.1007/s11698-021-00224-7
- eISSN
- 1863-2513
- Externe Identifier
- Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: YC8UX
- ISSN
- 1863-2505
- Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
- 1
- Zeitschrift
- CLIOMETRICA
- Schlüsselwörter
- Grain prices
- Harvest yields
- Temperature variability
- Drought variability
- Solar variability
- Early modern period
- Europe
- Paginierung
- 29 - 77
- Datum der Veröffentlichung
- 2022
- Status
- Published
- Titel
- The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices
- Sub types
- Article
- Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
- 16
Datenquelle: Web of Science (Lite)
- Andere Metadatenquellen:
-
- Abstract
- <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Grain was the most important food source in early modern Europe (<jats:italic>c</jats:italic>. 1500–1800), and its price influenced the entire economy. The extent to which climate variability determined grain price variations remains contested, and claims of solar cycle influences on prices are disputed. We thoroughly reassess these questions, within a framework of comprehensive statistical analysis, by employing an unprecedentedly large grain price data set together with state-of-the-art palaeoclimate reconstructions and long meteorological series. A highly significant negative grain price–temperature relationship (i.e. colder = high prices and vice versa) is found across Europe. This association increases at larger spatial and temporal scales and reaches a correlation of<jats:inline-formula><jats:alternatives><jats:tex-math>$$-\,0.41$$</jats:tex-math><mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mspace /><mml:mn>0.41</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></jats:alternatives></jats:inline-formula>considering the European grain price average and previous year June–August temperatures at annual resolution, and of<jats:inline-formula><jats:alternatives><jats:tex-math>$$-\,0.63$$</jats:tex-math><mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mspace /><mml:mn>0.63</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></jats:alternatives></jats:inline-formula>at decadal timescales. This strong relationship is of episodic rather than periodic (cyclic) nature. Only weak and spatially inconsistent signals of hydroclimate (precipitation and drought), and no meaningful association with solar variations, are detected in the grain prices. The significant and persistent temperature effects on grain prices imply that this now rapidly changing climate element has been a more important factor in European economic history, even in southern Europe, than commonly acknowledged.</jats:p>
- Autoren
- Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
- Peter Thejll
- Bo Christiansen
- Andrea Seim
- Claudia Hartl
- Jan Esper
- DOI
- 10.1007/s11698-021-00224-7
- eISSN
- 1863-2513
- ISSN
- 1863-2505
- Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
- 1
- Zeitschrift
- Cliometrica
- Sprache
- en
- Online publication date
- 2021
- Paginierung
- 29 - 77
- Datum der Veröffentlichung
- 2022
- Status
- Published
- Herausgeber
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC
- Herausgeber URL
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11698-021-00224-7
- Datum der Datenerfassung
- 2023
- Titel
- The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices
- Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
- 16
Datenquelle: Crossref
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