Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks

Abstract

AbstractThe sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8–9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect’s climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system’s failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8–9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

Autoren

Ulf Büntgen
Andrew Liebhold
Daniel Nievergelt
Beat Wermelinger
Alain Roques
Frederick Reinig
Paul J Krusic
Alma Piermattei
Simon Egli
Paolo Cherubini
Jan Esper

DOI

10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9

eISSN

1432-1939

ISSN

0029-8549

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

2

Zeitschrift

Oecologia

Sprache

en

Online publication date

2020

Paginierung

543 - 552

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2020

Status

Published

Herausgeber

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Herausgeber URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9

Datum der Datenerfassung

2021

Titel

Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

192

Datenquelle: Crossref

Abstract

The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8-9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect's climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system's failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8-9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

Addresses

Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK. ulf.buentgen@geog.cam.ac.uk.

Autoren

Ulf Büntgen
Andrew Liebhold
Daniel Nievergelt
Beat Wermelinger
Alain Roques
Frederick Reinig
Paul J Krusic
Alma Piermattei
Simon Egli
Paolo Cherubini
Jan Esper

DOI

10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9

eISSN

1432-1939

Externe Identifier

PubMed Identifier: 31919693
PubMed Central ID: PMC7002459

Funding acknowledgements

ustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions: CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/ 16_019/0000797
OP RDE grant EVA4.0: CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803

Open access

true

ISSN

0029-8549

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

2

Zeitschrift

Oecologia

Schlüsselwörter

Animals
Moths
Larix
Disease Outbreaks
Population Dynamics
Climate Change

Sprache

eng

Medium

Print-Electronic

Online publication date

2020

Open access status

Open Access

Paginierung

543 - 552

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2020

Status

Published

Publisher licence

CC BY

Datum der Datenerfassung

2020

Titel

Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks.

Sub types

research-article
Journal Article

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

192

Files

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9.pdf https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC7002459?pdf=render

Datenquelle: Europe PubMed Central

Abstract

The sudden interruption of recurring larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.) outbreaks across the European Alps after 1982 was surprising, because populations had regularly oscillated every 8-9 years for the past 1200 years or more. Although ecophysiological evidence was limited and underlying processes remained uncertain, climate change has been indicated as a possible driver of this disruption. An unexpected, recent return of LBM population peaks in 2017 and 2018 provides insight into this insect's climate sensitivity. Here, we combine meteorological and dendrochronological data to explore the influence of temperature variation and atmospheric circulation on cyclic LBM outbreaks since the early 1950s. Anomalous cold European winters, associated with a persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, coincide with four consecutive epidemics between 1953 and 1982, and any of three warming-induced mechanisms could explain the system's failure thereafter: (1) high egg mortality, (2) asynchrony between egg hatch and foliage growth, and (3) upward shifts of outbreak epicentres. In demonstrating that LBM populations continued to oscillate every 8-9 years at sub-outbreak levels, this study emphasizes the relevance of winter temperatures on trophic interactions between insects and their host trees, as well as the importance of separating natural from anthropogenic climate forcing on population behaviour.

Date of acceptance

2019

Autoren

Ulf Büntgen
Andrew Liebhold
Daniel Nievergelt
Beat Wermelinger
Alain Roques
Frederick Reinig
Paul J Krusic
Alma Piermattei
Simon Egli
Paolo Cherubini
Jan Esper

Autoren-URL

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31919693

DOI

10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9

eISSN

1432-1939

Externe Identifier

PubMed Central ID: PMC7002459

Funding acknowledgements

ustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions: CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/ 16_019/0000797
OP RDE grant EVA4.0: CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

2

Zeitschrift

Oecologia

Schlüsselwörter

Dendroecology
European Alps
Insect outbreaks
North Atlantic Oscillation
Population cycles
Zeiraphera diniana or griseana
Animals
Climate Change
Disease Outbreaks
Larix
Moths
Population Dynamics

Sprache

eng

Country

Germany

Paginierung

543 - 552

PII

10.1007/s00442-019-04585-9

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2020

Status

Published

Datum, an dem der Datensatz öffentlich gemacht wurde

2020

Titel

Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks.

Sub types

Journal Article

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

192

Datenquelle: PubMed

Return of the moth: rethinking the effect of climate on insect outbreaks

Files

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