Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

Publikationstyp:

Zeitschriftenaufsatz

Metadaten:

Autoren

Kyrre Linne Kausrud
Mike Begon
Tamara Ben Ari
Hildegunn Viljugrein
Jan Esper
Ulf Buentgen
Herwig Leirs
Claudia Junge
Bao Yang
Meixue Yang
Lei Xu
Nils Chr Stenseth

Autoren-URL

https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:000283576700001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL

DOI

10.1186/1741-7007-8-112

eISSN

1741-7007

Externe Identifier

Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: 672IP
PubMed Identifier: 20799946

Zeitschrift

BMC BIOLOGY

Artikelnummer

ARTN 112

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2010

Status

Published

Titel

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

Sub types

Article

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

Datenquelle: Web of Science (Lite)

Andere Metadatenquellen:

Abstract

Abstract Background Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. Results We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. Conclusions Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades. See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108

Autoren

Kyrre Linné Kausrud
Mike Begon
Tamara Ben Ari
Hildegunn Viljugrein
Jan Esper
Ulf Büntgen
Herwig Leirs
Claudia Junge
Bao Yang
Meixue Yang
Lei Xu
Nils Chr Stenseth

DOI

10.1186/1741-7007-8-112

eISSN

1741-7007

Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung

Zeitschrift

BMC Biology

Sprache

Artikelnummer

112

Online publication date

2010

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2010

Status

Published

Herausgeber

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Herausgeber URL

http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1741-7007-8-112

Datum der Datenerfassung

2021

Titel

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

Datenquelle: Crossref

Abstract

<h4>Background</h4>Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans.<h4>Results</h4>We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108.

Addresses

Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Dept. of Biology, University of Oslo, P,O, Box 1066, N-0316 Oslo, Norway.

Autoren

Kyrre Linné Kausrud
Mike Begon
Tamara Ben Ari
Hildegunn Viljugrein
Jan Esper
Ulf Büntgen
Herwig Leirs
Claudia Junge
Bao Yang
Meixue Yang
Lei Xu
Nils Chr Stenseth

DOI

10.1186/1741-7007-8-112

eISSN

1741-7007

Externe Identifier

PubMed Identifier: 20799946
PubMed Central ID: PMC2944127

Open access

true

ISSN

1741-7007

Zeitschrift

BMC biology

Schlüsselwörter

Animals
Humans
Gerbillinae
Yersinia pestis
Plague
Rodent Diseases
Prevalence
Climate
Disease Reservoirs
Demography
Population Density
Models, Biological
History, 20th Century
Asia, Central

Sprache

eng

Medium

Electronic

Online publication date

2010

Open access status

Open Access

Paginierung

112

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2010

Status

Published

Publisher licence

CC BY

Datum der Datenerfassung

2010

Titel

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium.

Sub types

Historical Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
research-article
Journal Article

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

Files

https://bmcbiol.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/1741-7007-8-112 http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1741-7007-8-112.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/20799946/pdf/?tool=EBI https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC2944127?pdf=render

Datenquelle: Europe PubMed Central

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Human cases of plague (Yersinia pestis) infection originate, ultimately, in the bacterium's wildlife host populations. The epidemiological dynamics of the wildlife reservoir therefore determine the abundance, distribution and evolution of the pathogen, which in turn shape the frequency, distribution and virulence of human cases. Earlier studies have shown clear evidence of climatic forcing on contemporary plague abundance in rodents and humans. RESULTS: We find that high-resolution palaeoclimatic indices correlate with plague prevalence and population density in a major plague host species, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), over 1949-1995. Climate-driven models trained on these data predict independent data on human plague cases in early 20th-century Kazakhstan from 1904-1948, suggesting a consistent impact of climate on large-scale wildlife reservoir dynamics influencing human epidemics. Extending the models further back in time, we also find correspondence between their predictions and qualitative records of plague epidemics over the past 1500 years. CONCLUSIONS: Central Asian climate fluctuations appear to have had significant influences on regional human plague frequency in the first part of the 20th century, and probably over the past 1500 years. This first attempt at ecoepidemiological reconstruction of historical disease activity may shed some light on how long-term plague epidemiology interacts with human activity. As plague activity in Central Asia seems to have followed climate fluctuations over the past centuries, we may expect global warming to have an impact upon future plague epidemiology, probably sustaining or increasing plague activity in the region, at least in the rodent reservoirs, in the coming decades.See commentary: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/108.

Date of acceptance

2010

Autoren

Kyrre Linné Kausrud
Mike Begon
Tamara Ben Ari
Hildegunn Viljugrein
Jan Esper
Ulf Büntgen
Herwig Leirs
Claudia Junge
Bao Yang
Meixue Yang
Lei Xu
Nils Chr Stenseth

Autoren-URL

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20799946

DOI

10.1186/1741-7007-8-112

eISSN

1741-7007

Externe Identifier

PubMed Central ID: PMC2944127

Zeitschrift

BMC Biol

Schlüsselwörter

Animals
Asia, Central
Climate
Demography
Disease Reservoirs
Gerbillinae
History, 20th Century
Humans
Models, Biological
Plague
Population Density
Prevalence
Rodent Diseases
Yersinia pestis

Sprache

eng

Country

England

Paginierung

112

PII

1741-7007-8-112

Datum der Veröffentlichung

2010

Status

Published online

Datum, an dem der Datensatz öffentlich gemacht wurde

2011

Titel

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium.

Sub types

Historical Article
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Ausgabe der Zeitschrift

Datenquelle: PubMed

Beziehungen:

Eigentum von

Klimageographie

Modeling the epidemiological history of plague in Central Asia: Palaeoclimatic forcing on a disease system over the past millennium

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