Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

Publikationstyp:
Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Metadaten:
Autoren
  • Nils Chr Stenseth
  • Noelle I Samia
  • Hildegunn Viljugrein
  • Kyrre Linne Kausrud
  • Mike Begon
  • Stephen Davis
  • Herwig Leirs
  • VM Dubyanskiy
  • Jan Esper
  • Vladimir S Ageyev
  • Nikolay L Klassovskiy
  • Sergey B Pole
  • Kung-Sik Chan
Autoren-URL
https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=fis-test-1&SrcAuth=WosAPI&KeyUT=WOS:000240380800031&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=WOS_CPL
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0602447103
Externe Identifier
  • Clarivate Analytics Document Solution ID: 082IU
  • PubMed Identifier: 16924109
ISSN
0027-8424
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
35
Zeitschrift
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Schlüsselwörter
  • Generalized Threshold Mixed Model
  • historic and recent climatic conditions
  • time-series data
  • Yersinia pestis
Paginierung
13110 - 13115
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2006
Status
Published
Titel
Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation
Sub types
  • Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
103

Datenquelle: Web of Science (Lite)

Andere Metadatenquellen:
Abstract
<jats:p>The bacterium<jats:italic>Yersinia pestis</jats:italic>causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949–1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that<jats:italic>Y. pestis</jats:italic>prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1°C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a &gt;50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.</jats:p>
Autoren
  • Nils Chr Stenseth
  • Noelle I Samia
  • Hildegunn Viljugrein
  • Kyrre Linné Kausrud
  • Mike Begon
  • Stephen Davis
  • Herwig Leirs
  • VM Dubyanskiy
  • Jan Esper
  • Vladimir S Ageyev
  • Nikolay L Klassovskiy
  • Sergey B Pole
  • Kung-Sik Chan
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0602447103
eISSN
1091-6490
ISSN
0027-8424
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
35
Zeitschrift
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Sprache
en
Online publication date
2006
Paginierung
13110 - 13115
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2006
Status
Published
Herausgeber
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Herausgeber URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0602447103
Datum der Datenerfassung
2024
Titel
Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
103

Datenquelle: Crossref

Abstract
The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1 degrees C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.
Addresses
  • Department of Biology, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway. n.c.stenseth@bio.uio.no
Autoren
  • Nils Chr Stenseth
  • Noelle I Samia
  • Hildegunn Viljugrein
  • Kyrre Linné Kausrud
  • Mike Begon
  • Stephen Davis
  • Herwig Leirs
  • VM Dubyanskiy
  • Jan Esper
  • Vladimir S Ageyev
  • Nikolay L Klassovskiy
  • Sergey B Pole
  • Kung-Sik Chan
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0602447103
eISSN
1091-6490
Externe Identifier
  • PubMed Identifier: 16924109
  • PubMed Central ID: PMC1559761
Funding acknowledgements
  • Wellcome Trust: 063576/Z/01/Z
  • Wellcome Trust:
Open access
false
ISSN
0027-8424
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
35
Zeitschrift
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Schlüsselwörter
  • Animals
  • Humans
  • Gerbillinae
  • Yersinia pestis
  • Plague
  • Prevalence
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Climate
  • Seasons
  • Kazakhstan
Sprache
eng
Medium
Print-Electronic
Online publication date
2006
Paginierung
13110 - 13115
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2006
Status
Published
Datum der Datenerfassung
2006
Titel
Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation.
Sub types
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • research-article
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Journal Article
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
103

Files

https://europepmc.org/articles/PMC1559761?pdf=render

Datenquelle: Europe PubMed Central

Abstract
The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1 degrees C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.
Autoren
  • Nils Chr Stenseth
  • Noelle I Samia
  • Hildegunn Viljugrein
  • Kyrre Linné Kausrud
  • Mike Begon
  • Stephen Davis
  • Herwig Leirs
  • VM Dubyanskiy
  • Jan Esper
  • Vladimir S Ageyev
  • Nikolay L Klassovskiy
  • Sergey B Pole
  • Kung-Sik Chan
Autoren-URL
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16924109
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0602447103
Externe Identifier
  • PubMed Central ID: PMC1559761
Funding acknowledgements
  • Wellcome Trust:
  • Wellcome Trust: 063576/Z/01/Z
ISSN
0027-8424
Ausgabe der Veröffentlichung
35
Zeitschrift
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Schlüsselwörter
  • Animals
  • Climate
  • Gerbillinae
  • Humans
  • Kazakhstan
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Plague
  • Prevalence
  • Seasons
  • Yersinia pestis
Sprache
eng
Country
United States
Paginierung
13110 - 13115
PII
0602447103
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2006
Status
Published
Datum, an dem der Datensatz öffentlich gemacht wurde
2006
Titel
Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation.
Sub types
  • Journal Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Ausgabe der Zeitschrift
103

Datenquelle: PubMed

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