Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS: cyclone intensity and horizontal wind speed

Publikationstyp:
Sonstiges
Metadaten:
Abstract
<jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Strong low-level winds are among the most impactful effects of extratropical cyclones on society. &amp;amp;#160;The wind intensity and the spatial distribution of wind maxima may change in a warming climate, however, the dynamics involved are not clear. Here, structural and dynamical changes of North Atlantic cyclones in a warmer climate close to the end of the current century are investigated with storm-relative composites based on Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) simulations. Furthermore, a piecewise potential vorticity inversion is applied, to attribute such changes in low-level winds to changes in PV anomalies at different levels.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;We identify an extended wind footprint southeast of the cyclone centre, where the wind speed tends to intensify in a warmer climate. Both an amplified low-level PV anomaly driven by enhanced diabatic heating and a dipole change in upper-level PV anomalies contribute to this wind intensification. On the contrary, wind changes associated with lower- and upper-level PV anomalies mostly compensate each other upstream of the cyclone center. Wind changes at upper levels are dominated by changes in upper-level PV anomalies and the background flow. All together, our results indicate that a complex interation of enhanced diabatic heating and altered upper-tropospheric wave dynamics shape future changes in near-surface winds in North Atlantic cyclones.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;</jats:p>
Autoren
  • Edgar Dolores Tesillos
  • Stephan Pfahl
  • Franziska Teubler
DOI
10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8926
Buchtitel
Copernicus GmbH
Datum der Veröffentlichung
2021
Status
Published
Herausgeber URL
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8926
Datum der Datenerfassung
2021
Titel
Future changes in North Atlantic winter cyclones in CESM-LENS: cyclone intensity and horizontal wind speed

Datenquelle: Crossref

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